TD5 now TS Erin - Page 3 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

MCcruiser · 08-16-2007, 12:33 AM

I had an appointment south of here, about 1/2 way between my house and Galveston. I saw BIG clouds but they were moving pretty quickly from east to west. No organized bands, just lots of them. Some of them didn't look like rain clouds, and those that didn't look ready to dump water. Hopefully the wind will take these clouds to some desert before they start.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:27 AM

Tropical Storm Erin Forecast/advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
0300 Utc Thu Aug 16 2007

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Texas Coast From
San Luis Pass Southward To Brownsville. A Tropical Storm Warning
Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The
Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 26.5n 95.7w At 16/0300z
Position Accurate Within 20 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West-northwest Or 300 Degrees At 12 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1004 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 35 Kt With Gusts To 45 Kt.
34 Kt....... 75ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
12 Ft Seas.. 75ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 26.5n 95.7w At 16/0300z
At 16/0000z Center Was Located Near 26.3n 95.2w

Forecast Valid 16/1200z 27.4n 97.2w
Max Wind 45 Kt...gusts 55 Kt.
34 Kt... 75ne 30se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast Valid 17/0000z 28.4n 99.0w...inland
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Forecast Valid 17/1200z 29.3n 100.6w...remnant Low
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 30 Kt.

Forecast Valid 18/0000z...dissipated

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 26.5n 95.7w

Next Advisory At 16/0900z

$$
Forecaster Franklin

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
1000 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 15 2007

...erin Approaches The Texas Coast With No Change In Strength...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Texas Coast From
San Luis Pass Southward To Brownsville. A Tropical Storm Warning
Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The
Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Erin Was
Located Near Latitude 26.5 North...longitude 95.7 West Or About 140
Miles...220 Km...southeast Of Corpus Christi Texas And About 200
Miles...325 Km...south-southwest Of Galveston Texas.

Erin Is Moving Erratically Toward The West-northwest Near 14
Mph...22 Km/hr... And This Motion Is Expected To Continue Over The
Next 24 Hours. The Center Of Erin Is Expected To Be Very Near The
Texas Coast Within The Warning Area Tomorrow Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. A Little Strengthening Is Possible Prior To Landfall.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km
To The Northeast Of The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Measured By An Air Force Reserve
Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1004 Mb...29.65 Inches.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Across Much
Of Central And Southern Texas...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8
Inches Possible.

Storm Surge Of 2 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels May Be
Experienced In A Few Coastal Locations To The North Of Where The
Center Makes Landfall.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Along The Middle Texas Gulf Coast On
Thursday.

Repeating The 1000 Pm Cdt Position...26.5 N...95.7 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 100 Am Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 400
Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:28 AM

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
1100 Pm Edt Wed Aug 15 2007

Data From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate
That Erin Has Changed Little In Intensity This Evening...with The
Most Recent Minimum Pressure Of 1004 Mb And Maximum Flight Level
Winds Of 43 Kt In The Convection To The Northeast Of The Center.
These Winds Would Support A Surface Estimate Of 35 Kt...and That
Remains The Advisory Intensity. At Present...the Tropical Storm
Force Winds Cover Only A Fairly Small Area About 50 To 75 Miles To
The Northeast Of The Center. Convection Has Been On The Increase
Over The Past Couple Of Hours...although Not Over The Center...and
The Environment Is Still Favorable For A Little Strengthening Prior
To Landfall. The Official Forecast Is In Line With The
Ships/gfdl/hwrf Guidance. At Landfall...erin Is Expected To Be
Primarily A Rain Event...rather Than A Wind Event.

Although The Last Couple Of Aircraft Fixes Indicate A Short-term
Westward Jog...a More Representative Motion Is Estimated To Be
300/12. A Continuation Of This Basic Motion Is Expected Until
Landfall Tomorrow Morning...with The Track Controlled By High
Pressure To The North Of The Cyclone.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/0300z 26.5n 95.7w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 16/1200z 27.4n 97.2w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 17/0000z 28.4n 99.0w 30 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 17/1200z 29.3n 100.6w 20 Kt...remnant Low
48hr Vt 18/0000z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Franklin

MCcruiser · 08-16-2007, 02:57 AM

Most of the rain bands are between Corpus Christi and Lake Jackson,Texas, both south of Galveston. About 1/3 of the rain from Erin is already appearing on land and circulating, so that it looks like Corpus will get a lot of rain in the next day.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 08:05 AM

Wtnt45 Knhc 160852
Tcdat5
Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
500 Am Edt Thu Aug 16 2007

Satellite...radar...and Surface Observations Indicate That Erin
Remains Disorganized And Has Not Strengthened. Noaa Buoy 42019
Recently Reported A Sustained Wind Of 32 Kt And Velocity Data From
The Corpus Christi Wsr88d Indicate Winds In The 35 Kt Range Above
The Surface. Based On These Data...the Initial Intensity Is
Unchanged At 35 Kt. While The Present Lack Of Organization Argues
Against Significant Strengthening...erin Still Has 6-12 More Hours
Over Water So Slight Strengthening Is Possible Prior To Landfall.

Erin Has Been Wobbling A Bit Over The Last Few Hours But A Longer
Term Motion Yields And Initial Estimate Of 300/10. A Continuation
Of This Basic Motion Is Expected Through The Remainder Of The
Forecast With The Track Controlled By High Pressure To The North Of
The Cyclone.
The Tropical Storm Warning For The Southern Texas Coast From Port
Mansfield Southward To Brownsville Has Been Discontinued.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/0900z 27.3n 96.7w 35 Kt
12hr Vt 16/1800z 28.0n 98.1w 30 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 17/0600z 28.8n 99.9w 25 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 17/1800z 29.5n 101.5w 20 Kt...remnant Low
48hr Vt 18/0600z...dissipated

$$
Forecaster Rhome/beven

-----------------

Wtnt35 Knhc 160852
Tcpat5
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
400 Am Cdt Thu Aug 16 2007
...erin Nearing The Coast Of Texas As A Minimal Tropical Storm...

At 400 Am Cdt...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning Along The
Southern Texas Coast From Port Mansfield Southward To Brownsville
Has Been Discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect
For The Texas Coast From San Luis Pass Southward To Port Mansfield.
A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 400 Am Cdt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Erin Was
Located Near Latitude 27.3 North...longitude 96.7 West Or About 55
Miles... 90 Km...southeast Of Corpus Christi Texas And About 180
Miles...290 Km...southwest Of Galveston Texas.

Erin Has Been Moving Erratically Toward The West-northwest Near 12
Mph...19 Km/hr...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue Over The
Next 24 Hours. On This Track...the Center Of Erin Is Expected To
Move Inland Within The Warning Area Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. A Little Strengthening Is Possible Prior To Erin Making
Landfall. Once Inland...erin Is Expected To Weaken.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km
From The Center. A Noaa Buoy North Of The Center Recently Reported A
Wind Gust To 45 Mph.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1004 Mb...29.65 Inches.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected Across Much
Of Central And Southern Texas...with Possible Isolated Maximum
Amounts Of 10 Inches.

Storm Surge Of 2 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels May Be
Experienced In A Few Coastal Locations To The North Of Where The
Center Makes Landfall.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Along The Middle Texas Gulf Coast On
Thursday.

Repeating The 400 Am Cdt Position...27.3 N...96.7 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1004 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 700 Am Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1000
Am Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/beven