TD5 now TS Erin - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 06:15 PM

Flash Flood Watch issued for SE TX (W of I-45)

TS Warning remains in effect from Freeport southward.

Discussion:

Per NHC/NWS call center will be relocated slightly further north at the 400pm adv package. Satellite images continue to show most of the heavy rainfall and gusty winds NE of the center of circulation. Strong squall that moved through SE Harris about 1.5 hours ago resulted in power outages in Seabrook. Erin should continue to move off to the WNW and cross the coast very near KCRP early Thursday morning as a minimal tropical storm.

Impacts:

Numerous feeder bands will continue to advance towards the coast increasing in frequency and intensity tonight in early Thursday. Onset of more concentrated heavy rains should begin around 300am Thursday morning and last through much of the day Thursday. Still expect widespread 1-3” metro Houston with isolated 5” possible. SW of the Brazos River expect widespread 3-5” with isolated amounts upwards of 10”. Some of the latest guidance suggests the system may slow as it moves inland prolonging the heavy rainfall event into early Friday. Given forecast PWS of 2.5+ inches over the Gulf streaming toward the coast…would expect excessive hourly rainfall rates up to 4.0” in the heavy thunderstorms.

No change to tides/seas/winds needed at this time as most of the impacts will be felt SW of our area. May need to bump winds up at tad in the TS warning area with gust at or above 40mph in squalls. Seas really do not have much time to ramp up much more than 6-8 feet and tides should be held around 1-2 feet above normal.

Extended:

Very worrying model guidance out from 12Z showing remains of Erin becoming a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge over TX. Dean comes roaring through the Caribbean and break in sub-tropical high over TX allows the start of a poleward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. No need to sound any alarms just yet as we are still talking over 7 days out, however this hurricane is going to come very quickly and likely to be very strong by late this weekend. Guidance and NHC continue to indicate the potential for a very dangerous hurricane to be aimed at the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week.

UPDATE:

At 400pm the TS Warning is extended up the TX coast to San Luis Pass.

Erin is moving toward the NW and this motion should continue for the next 24 hour until landfall.

Another strong feeder band is approaching Harris County from the E and may produce winds up to 40mph.

No other changes.

Latest update on Dean now forecasting cat 4 (130mph) in W Caribbean Monday afternoon just SW of Cayman Islands. Very fast west track through the Caribbean is expected. Close watch is needed on Dean as it could enter the Gulf as a cat 4 early next week.

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 06:30 PM

Canarymoon and King George left San Luis Pass yesterday and headed north to visit his sister. SLP is actually not that far from Freeport - the address for the SLP Pier is Freeport. But it's not that far from Galveston either - next county over.

As you can see from the picture above, Houston/Galveston is starting to get some of the rain from the storm's bands.

Char · 08-15-2007, 06:33 PM

Things are happening fast & furious! Looks ominus at this point.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 06:35 PM

Good hope she is out of the flooding area, isolated spots up to 8 inches!! She should be fine getting back to Florida, It "looks" like Dean will be headed wnw towards the gulf as a cat 4, and so far none of Florida is not in the cone, hope they are right!! Tho I don't want any of them to hit any land, Sometimes I think I am in the wrong business!!

Char · 08-15-2007, 06:40 PM

I keep checking the Carnival web site, but they have nothing there re:itinerary changes for Galveston. The Ecstasy is supposed to dock at 8am tomorrow!

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 06:54 PM

It isn't supposed to hit till around 2 P>M> It will be a rough ride in but they should make it, just really bad weather, My understanding is they close the port with 39 MPH sustained!!

Char · 08-15-2007, 07:01 PM

I hope Sheila isn't affected by this storm. I know she will be safe, but the weather will be bad.

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 07:26 PM

Sheila is well north of here, and should NOT be affected. She is closer to the Louisiana border than she is to any of the model's storm tracks, by close to 500 miles. The Storm is headed west mostly. Even if it does turn north, she'll have enough time to get on the road and head to Florida.

Galveston is getting the rain right now. Unless there is a sudden change, it should not affect the Ecstacy coming in. It might be a soggy drive to the airport for the people getting off, and they may have to delay the departure in the evening. But with the storm moving this fast, I don't see imagine we'll have much accumulation here. If the storm stalls, well that's another can of beans.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 09:05 PM

Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 5a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052007
700 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 15 2007

...erin Remains Poorly Organized As It Approaches The Texas Coast...

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Texas Coast From
San Luis Pass Southward To Brownsville. A Tropical Storm Warning
Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The
Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 700 Pm Cdt...0000z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Erin Was
Estimated Near Latitude 26.5 North...longitude 95.1 West Or About
145 Miles...235 Km...east-northeast Of Brownsville Texas And About
195 Miles...310 Km...south Of Galveston Texas.

Erin Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 13 Mph...20 Km/hr...and
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Until Landfall Thursday
Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph...65 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Possible Before Landfall.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
To The North And East Of The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Unit
Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Total Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Possible Along The
Middle Texas Coast...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches.

Storm Surge Of 2 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels May Be
Experienced In A Few Coastal Locations To The North Of Where The
Center Makes Landfall.

Repeating The 700 Pm Cdt Position...26.5 N...95.1 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 13 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 1000 Pm Cdt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin