We now have TD5 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 11:57 PM

TD5 is formally 91L in the Gulf of Mexico!! She is expected to be TS Erin tomorrow!!

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 11:58 PM

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS

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sue miller · 08-15-2007, 12:02 AM

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 12:03 AM

Pay attention to this folks in Texas!! It may be a bit further south between Broensville and Corpus Cristi!!

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 07:01 AM

WTNT45 KNHC 150832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED.
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTERS. GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME RELOCATION MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER
TODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. STILL...THE CURRENT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. EVEN IF
THE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT
WOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 24.6N 91.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 25.3N 93.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.4N 95.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 27.3N 97.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 28.0N 98.9W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 07:02 AM

Tropical Floater Two AVN Color Imagery - Satellite Services Division

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 07:46 AM

Wtus84 Kcrp 151010
Hlscrp
Gmz230-235-250-255-270-275-txz242>247-151600-

Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Tropical Depression Local Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Tx
510 Am Cdt Wed Aug 15 2007

...a Tropical Storm Watch Is Now In Effect For The Middle Texas
Coast...

...new Information...

The Tropical Depression In The Central Gulf Of Mexico Will Make
Landfall Along The Middle Texas Coast On Thursday.

...areas Affected...

This Statement Recommends Action To Be Taken By The Residents Of
Aransas...calhoun...kleberg...nueces...refugio And San Patricio
Counties.

...watches/warnings...

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Entire Middle
Texas Coast From Baffin Bay To Port Oconnor. The Tropical Storm
Watch Is In Effect Through Thursday.

...storm Information...

At 400 Am Cdt...tropical Depression Five Was Located At Latitude
24.6 North And Longitude 91.8 West Or About 365 Miles East-
Southeast Of Brownsville. The Depression Was Moving To The
Northwest At 10 Mph. The Depression Is Forecast To Become A
Tropical Storm Later Today And Is Expected To Make Landfall By
Late Thursday Morning Or Early Afternoon Between Baffin Bay And
Port Aransas.

...inland Flooding...

Storm Total Rainfall Amounts Between 3 And 6 Inches With Isolated
Totals Up To 8 Inches Will Be Possible. The Heaviest Rainfall Is
Expected To Occur Across The Coastal Bend And Victoria Region
Beginning On Thursday Morning. A Flash Flood Watch Is In Effect
From Late Tonight Through Thursday Evening For Coastal Counties As
Well As Bee...goliad And Victoria Counties. A Flash Flood Watch
May Be Required For Additional Counties Later Today.

...storm Surge And Storm Tide...

Tides Are Expected To Average Between One-half Of A Foot To As
High As 2 Feet Above Normal At The Time Of Landfall On Thursday.
This Will Produce Minor Tidal Overflow Beginning Wednesday Night
And Continuing Into Thursday. The Times Of High Tide At Port
Aransas Are Tonight At 525 Pm And Thursday Morning At 643 Am. The
Times Of High Tide At Port Oconnor Are Tonight At 703 Pm And Thursday
Morning At 1004 Am.

...winds...

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Mph. A Gradual Strengthening
Is Expected Through Thursday As It Approaches The Coast. Tropical
Storm Force Winds Up To 45 Mph With Gusts As High As 60 Mph Will
Be Possible Near And Just To The North Of The Center At The Time
Of Landfall On Thursday.

...precautionary/preparedness Actions...

The Main Threat From This Tropical Cyclone Will Be From Heavy
Rainfall. Residents Living In Flood-prone Areas Need To Be
Prepared For The Possibility Of Flooding. Due To The Heavy Rains
Received Last Month And The Fact That Several Rivers Remain In
Flood...flooding Will Be A Strong Possibility.

...next Update...

The Next Statement Will Be Issued Around 800 Am Cdt Wednesday.

$$

Runyen