Ts Dean - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 11:42 AM

Hurricane Wind
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djgifford · 08-14-2007, 11:49 AM

This is a pretty hairy one...

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 12:43 PM

Char · 08-14-2007, 05:08 PM

Oh boy! Gotta keep our eyes on it now!

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 05:21 PM

I will be posting models as they come out but don't pay attention unless it is a 5 day or under cone!! There are just too many variables for any to be the correct one until it is pretty close!! As it gets to 5 days, they have a good idea what it will do, but just like Charley nothing is set in stone for a hurricane!!

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 05:51 PM

...Dean moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic...

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Dean.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dean was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 41.0 west or about 1140
miles...1830 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and
about 1390 miles...2235 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Dean is moving quickly toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...11.6 N...41.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Knabb

sue miller · 08-14-2007, 05:55 PM

Tad more south on this one!!

djgifford · 08-14-2007, 08:00 PM

As terrible as these hurricanes are, I do find this all quite fascinating...

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 12:07 AM

TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY
CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD
SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE
FORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE
MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.0N 42.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 07:07 AM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
MILES...1880 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N...44.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN