Ts Dean - Page 3 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

MCcruiser · 08-15-2007, 02:52 PM

Mission Control in Houston is following this storm, since it could be right here in Houston before the current Shuttle mission is over. Landing is scheduled for Wed., Aug 22, but a one or two day extension is possible due to weather at the Cape.

Today's forecast shows it entering the Gulf as Cat 3 on Monday. While the models do not show the storm going this far north, they can't wait until Monday to find out that the models were inaccurate.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 05:37 PM

Until you see the forcast cone between 3-5 days then there will be a clue where it will go!! Even at the last minute there can be a totally unexpected change, as in Charley!! It is always good to be prepared in any event BEFORE the season even starts, so keeping your eyes on Dean is very important!!

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 05:37 PM

Tropical Storm Dean Advisory Number 10
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Pm Ast Wed Aug 15 2007

...dean Intensifying Over The Central Tropical Atlantic...

A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Portions Of The Lesser
Antilles Later Tonight Or Early Thursday. Interests In The Lesser
Antilles Should Monitor The Progress Of Dean.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dean Was
Located Near Latitude 13.1 North...longitude 47.9 West Or About 910
Miles...1465 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 22 Mph...35 Km/hr...
And A Motion Between West And West-northwest Is Expected During The
Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 65 Mph...100
Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Further Strengthening Is Forecast
During The Next 24 Hours And Dean Could Become A Hurricane Later
Tonight Or Early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 994 Mb...29.35 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...13.1 N...47.9 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 22 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...65
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...994 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Blake

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 05:40 PM

Tropical Storm Dean Discussion Number 10
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Pm Edt Wed Aug 15 2007

Dean Continues To Organize This Afternoon. Although The Cloud Tops
Have Warmed Recently...the Last Few Visible Satellite Pictures
Indicate A Tightly Curved Band Wrapping Around The Center. Amsu And
Trmm Microwave Images Have Also Suggested The Formation Of A
Partial Eyewall. Most Objective And Subjective Dvorak Intensity
Estimates Are Increasing...and The Current Intensity Is Raised To
55 Kt.

The Initial Motion Has Shifted More To The West-northwest In The
Past Six Hours...around 285/19. This Movement Toward The
West-northwest Is Expected To Be Brief As Deep-layered Ridging To
The North Of Dean Strengthens Overnight...forcing The Storm On More
Of A Westward Course Tomorrow. The Global Models Now Suggest That
Any Interaction With A Middle-level Trough Currently Over The
Bahamas Will Be Limited As That Feature Is Forecast To Advance
Westward As An Inverted Trough Well Ahead Of Dean. Numerical Track
Guidance Is In Very Good Agreement With This Scenario...showing The
Storm In The Vicinity Of The Northwestern Caribbean Sea In About 5
Days. The Official Forecast Is Shifted A Little To The North During
The First 36 Hours...but Is Much Faster And To The West Of The
Previous Track Near The End Of The Period. It Is Worth Noting That
The Official Forecast Is Still Slower Than The Numerical Model
Consensus.

Based On What We Think We Know About Intensity Change...there Do Not
Seem To Be Too Many Inhibiting Factors To A Future Intensification
Of Dean. Global Models Unanimously Develop A Large Upper-level
Anticyclone Near The Center Of The Hurricane As The System Travels
Into The Caribbean Sea. In Combination With Very Deep Warm
Waters...this Pattern Would Favor The Development Of A Powerful
Hurricane. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Higher Than The
Previous Nhc Forecast And Is In Good Agreement With A Consensus Of
The Ships...gfdl...hwrf...and Lgem Models.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 15/2100z 13.1n 47.9w 55 Kt
12hr Vt 16/0600z 13.5n 50.8w 65 Kt
24hr Vt 16/1800z 14.1n 54.7w 70 Kt
36hr Vt 17/0600z 14.6n 58.6w 75 Kt
48hr Vt 17/1800z 15.1n 62.3w 85 Kt
72hr Vt 18/1800z 16.0n 69.5w 95 Kt
96hr Vt 19/1800z 17.0n 76.0w 105 Kt
120hr Vt 20/1800z 18.5n 83.0w 115 Kt

$$
Forecaster Blake

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 06:16 PM

Latest update on Dean now forecasting cat 4 (130mph) in W Caribbean Monday afternoon just SW of Cayman Islands. Very fast west track through the Caribbean is expected. Close watch is needed on Dean as it could enter the Gulf as a cat 4 early next week.

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:23 AM

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dean Advisory Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
1100 Pm Ast Wed Aug 15 2007

...dean Strengthens...hurricane Watches Issued In The Lesser
Antilles...

At 11 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...hurricane Watches Have Been Issued For The
Following Locations By Their Respective Governments...st. Lucia...
Martinique...guadeloupe And Its Dependencies...saba...and St.
Eustatius. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

At 11 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...the Government Of The Netherlands Antilles
Has Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm
Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The
Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Additional Watches And Warnings Will Likely Be Required Tomorrow
Morning.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1100 Pm Ast...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dean Was
Located Near Latitude 13.1 North...longitude 50.2 West Or About 625
Miles...1005 Km...east Of Barbados.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Near 23 Mph...37 Km/hr...and This
Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And
Dean Is Expected To Become A Hurricane On Thursday. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Investigate Dean Tomorrow
Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...13.1 N...50.2 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 23 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Am Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Brown

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:24 AM

Tropical Storm Dean Discussion Number 11
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
1100 Pm Edt Wed Aug 15 2007

Dean Has Continued To Gradually Become Better Organized This
Evening...with A 2311 Utc Trmm Pass Suggesting That A Small Banding
Eye Feature May Be Forming. The 00z Dvorak Satellite Intensity
Estimates Were 55 Kt...however...the Satellite Appearance Has
Improved Since Then And The Advisory Intensity Has Been Increased
To 60 Kt.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 280/20. Dean Is Forecast To Continue
Moving West To West-northwestward South Of A Deep-layer Ridge
Located Over The Central Atlantic. The Track Guidance Is Tightly
Clustered On This Motion During The Next 72 Hours. At Days 4 And
5...the Track Guidance Has A Bit More Spread...but Still Is In Good
Agreement On A Continued West-northwest Motion Into The
Northwestern Caribbean Sea. The Global Models Show Very Little
Interaction Between Dean And A Middle-level Trough Currently Over
The Bahamas...as They Continue To Move The Trough Westward Ahead Of
Dean. The Nogaps Is A Little Slower To Move The Trough West And Its
Track Is Therefore A Little Farther North Than The Rest Of The
Guidance. The New Official Track Forecast Is Near The Middle Of The
Guidance Envelope And Close To The Guna Model Consensus.

There Are Seemingly Few Factors That Would Inhibit Strengthening
During The Forecast Period. As Mentioned In The Previous
Discussion...the Models Unanimously Develop A Large Upper-level
Anticyclone Over Dean As It Moves Into The Caribbean Sea.
Mysteriously...the Gfdl And Hwrf Models Have Backed Off On Their
Respective Intensity Forecasts. However...the Ships And Lgem
Models Continue To Indicate Steady Strengthening And The Official
Intensity Forecast Is Unchanged From The Previous Advisory.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Be
Investigating Dean Tomorrow Afternoon...and The Noaa Gulfstream-iv
Will Conduct A Synoptic Surveillance Mission For The 17/00z
Analysis Cycle.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/0300z 13.1n 50.2w 60 Kt
12hr Vt 16/1200z 13.6n 53.2w 65 Kt
24hr Vt 17/0000z 14.2n 57.2w 70 Kt
36hr Vt 17/1200z 14.8n 61.1w 75 Kt
48hr Vt 18/0000z 15.3n 64.7w 85 Kt
72hr Vt 19/0000z 16.3n 71.5w 95 Kt
96hr Vt 20/0000z 17.8n 78.5w 105 Kt
120hr Vt 21/0000z 19.5n 85.5w 115 Kt

$$
Forecaster Brown

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:42 AM

sue miller · 08-16-2007, 02:49 AM

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 160543
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Dean Intermediate Advisory Number 11a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
200 Am Ast Thu Aug 16 2007

...dean Near Hurricane Strength...continuing Quickly Westward...

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For St. Lucia...martinique...
Guadeloupe And Its Dependencies...saba...and St. Eustatius. A
Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within
The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For St. Maarten. A Tropical
Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Additional Watches And Warnings Will Likely Be Required On The Next
Advisory.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

At 200 Am Ast...0600z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dean Was
Located Near Latitude 13.2 North...longitude 51.3 West Or About 550
Miles...885 Km...east Of Barbados.

Dean Is Moving Toward The West Near 23 Mph...37 Km/hr...and This
Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And
Dean Is Expected To Become A Hurricane Later Today. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Investigate Dean This
Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km
From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Repeating The 200 Am Ast Position...13.2 N...51.3 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 23 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...70 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 500 Am Ast.

$$
Forecaster Beven