Thread: We now have a TD4 formally 90L

90L has been upgraded to a tropical depression, here is the 5 day cone

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Could alter some itineraries.

Originally Posted by Char

Could alter some itineraries.

Yes and I am pretty sure of it if it stays on this track, Cat 2 on saturday in the islands!! UGH

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Darn! It looks like it will turn north and head toward the US coast!

Notice they are suggesting this could be a hurricane on Friday before it hits the islands!!

Well, it's that time of year and we should expect these storms, tho we really never expect them to alter OUR plans! Mother Nature has some tricks up her sleeve.

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
500 Pm Edt Mon Aug 13 2007

The Depression Is Maintaining Itself In The Face Of Easterly Wind
Shear Of About 15 Kt. Deep Convection Has Been Pulsating Today And
Has Remained Displaced To The West Of The Low-level Center.
Meteosat-9 High-resolution Visible Imagery Clearly Revealed The
Exposed Low-level Center Earlier This Afternoon...but More Recently
The Convection Has Increased And Partially Obscured The Center.
Dvorak Intensity Estimates Are Unchanged And The Advisory Intensity
Remains 30 Kt.

Td Four Is Still Racing Almost Due Westward...with An Initial Motion
Estimate Of 265/17. A Continued Brisk And Generally Westward Motion
Should Continue During The Next Couple Of Days While The Cyclone
Moves Along The Southern Periphery Of A Deep Layer Ridge. The
Official Forecast Is Ahead Of Nearly All Of The Guidance During
That Period...as The Models Do Not Seem To Have A Good Handle On
The Fast Initial Speed. Beyond 48 Hours...a Turn Toward The
West-northwest Is Forecast By All Of The Models. Since This
Morning...all Of The Track Model Guidance Has Slowed Down And
Shifted To The Right...in Response To Forecasting A Slightly Weaker
Subtropical Ridge Over The Western Atlantic Later In The Forecast
Period. The New Official Track Has Been Adjusted Toward The
Consensus Of The Latest Models...but Remains A Little Faster And To
The West Of The Guidance Envelope...since The Guidance Could Shift
Back The Other Way Later.

The Shear Is Forecast To Abate While The Sea-surface Temperatures
Will Increase Along The Official Track During The Next 2-3 Days.
Thereafter...most Of The Global Models Forecast The Tropical
Cyclone To Find Itself Beneath An Upper-level Ridge...an
Environment That Would Favor Strengthening. A Notable Exception Is
The Ecmwf...which Forecasts A Stronger Mid-oceanic Trough Over The
Central Atlantic In 4-5 Days Which Could Cause An Increase In The
Shear. That Model...however...does Not Represent The Tropical
Cyclone Well...and It Might Not Have Good Handle On How The Cyclone
Could Modify The Upper-level Flow. The Ships Guidance Forecasts 63
Kt At 72 Hours And 75 Kt By Five Days...while The Lgem Reaches 84
Kt At 120 Hours. Meanwhile The Gfdl And Hwrf Forecast 90 And 84
Kt...respectively...at Five Days. Considering This Guidance...the
New Official Intensity Forecast In Unchanged From This Morning But
Retains A Significant Amount Of Uncertainty...especially At The
Longer Ranges.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 13/2100z 11.9n 33.1w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 14/0600z 11.8n 35.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 14/1800z 11.8n 38.5w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 15/0600z 11.8n 41.6w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 15/1800z 12.1n 44.7w 50 Kt
72hr Vt 16/1800z 13.0n 50.5w 60 Kt
96hr Vt 17/1800z 15.0n 56.0w 75 Kt
120hr Vt 18/1800z 17.0n 61.0w 90 Kt

000
Wtnt34 Knhc 140258
Tcpat4

Bulletin
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007
1100 Pm Ast Mon Aug 13 2007

...depression Moving Westward With Little Change In Organization...

At 1100 Pm Ast...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Four Was
Located Near Latitude 12.0 North...longitude 35.0 West Or About 740
Miles...1190 Km...west-southwest Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands And About 1780 Miles...2865 Km...east Of The Lesser
Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West Near 20 Mph And This Motion
Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...
And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm On Tuesday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...12.0 N...35.0 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 20 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.