Hurricane Flossie - Page 2 - Cruise Line Fans: Cruise Reviews and Chat From Real Cruisers

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 12:11 AM

000
WTPA42 PHFO 150254
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER BEING CLOUD-COVERED...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE BRIEFLY CLEARED IN VISIBLE AND WARMED IN INFRARED IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW SHOWS RECURRING WEAKNESS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR SHOWING AN ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AT 0200 UTC. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THESE GAPS OCCASIONALLY REFORM. IN SHORT...HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOW HAVING DIFFICULTY RETAINING AN INTACT EYEWALL. THE 26 KT VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED OVER FLOSSIE BY UW-CIMMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THIS SYSTEM. CI VALUES AT 0000 UTC RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB TO 5.0 FROM JTWC...65 TO 77 KT. LATEST AVAILABLE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 90 KT ONLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. WE WILL CONTINUE THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND BY INITIALIZING FLOSSIE AT 85 KT FOR THIS RUN.

WE WILL WEAKEN FLOSSIE FOLLOWING THE TREND SUGGESTED BY SHFR 5-DAY MODEL GUIDANCE...LEAVING THIS SYSTEM AT 20 KT AT 120 HOURS. FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN FASTER IF SHEAR INCREASES AND THE EYEWALL TOTALLY COLLAPSES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG GRADIENT FLOW EXISTS FAR NORTH OF FLOSSIE...RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT AT SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND SHORTLY BEFORE 0300 UTC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH BAMD AND HWFI REPRESENTING THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OLD ONE...FOLLOWING CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BOTH CONB AND CCON TAKE SHARP DEPARTURES TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AS FLOSSIE RESPONDS TO LOWER STEERING WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. INITIAL TRACK MOTION IS 295 AT 7 KT BASED ON RADAR. HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.5N 155.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 18.7N 158.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.7N 160.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 162.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.9N 167.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 23.4N 171.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 176.2W 20 KT

$$

FORECASTER POWELL

Heavy bands are 25 miles offshore!!

cruisin' chick · 08-15-2007, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Char

Hawaii Storm Update

Miami - Aug 14, 2007 --- NCL America is closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Flossie. The company has altered the current itineraries for Pride of Hawai'i and Pride of America to ensure the safety and comfort of our guests and crew.
Pride of Hawai'i will be at sea today instead of calling in Hilo, Hawai'i. Pride of America will spend the day at sea tomorrow, Wednesday, August 15, instead of calling in Kona, Hawai'i.
As of now, the company has not altered any other itineraries; however, NCL America continues to monitor the storm's path and intensity.
As always, the safety and security of our guests and crew is our number one priority.
If the company alters any itineraries, NCL will post the information on www.ncl.com under "Hawai`i Storm Update" and advise the team in the call center, who can be reached by calling 1-800-327-7030.

My friend and her kids are going on the Pride of Hawai'i on the 27th so hopefully, the seas will calm down by then.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 07:17 AM

Wtpa42 Phfo 150902
Tcdcp2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 27
Nws Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu Hi Ep092007
1100 Pm Hst Tue Aug 14 2007

Strong Vertical Shear Is Now Tearing Flossie Apart.

Hurricane Flossie Surprised Us By Maintaining Its Strength As Long As It Did...but The System Has Weakened Rapidly Over The Past Several Hours...and Is Now Down To Tropical Storm Strength. Aircraft Reconnaissance Showed The Central Pressure Had Risen To 993 Mb At 0513 Utc And Satellite Imagery Showed The Tops Of The System Shearing Off To The Northeast. The Low Level Cloud Center Is Now Emerging On The Southwest Side Of The High Clouds. With Strong Shear Continuing Over Flossie We Are Forecasting Steady Weakening With Only A Remnant Low Remaining By 120 Hours.

The Spread In The Model Guidance Increased Quite A Bit On This Package But We See No Reason To Depart From A West Northwest Track. We Have Shifted The Track Slightly To The South And Speeded It Up A Bit To Reflect A Greater Influence Of The Low Level Steering As Flossie Becomes A Shallow System.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 15/0900z 17.5n 156.4w 60 Kt
12hr Vt 15/1800z 17.9n 157.8w 50 Kt
24hr Vt 16/0600z 18.5n 159.7w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 16/1800z 19.1n 161.7w 40 Kt
48hr Vt 17/0600z 19.6n 163.9w 35 Kt
72hr Vt 18/0600z 20.4n 168.9w 30 Kt
96hr Vt 19/0600z 21.3n 174.5w 25 Kt...dissipating
120hr Vt 20/0600z 22.0n 179.8e 25 Kt...remnant Low

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

Char · 08-15-2007, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruisin' chick

My friend and her kids are going on the Pride of Hawai'i on the 27th so hopefully, the seas will calm down by then.

It will be long gone by then! Then business as usual.

sue miller · 08-15-2007, 12:13 PM

It is passed, Flossie is no longer a hurricane, They got lucky, no bad damage or injuries yet reported!!