Thread: New invest!! 90L

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.



All models are in agreement at this time that this could become a hurricane!! We have to watch this closely!!

Sue - Why isn't this on the NHC website yet? You're good

No idea, but watch this one Chuck, if this makes it, it could be bad!!

NHC-8:05PM Discussion

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W S OF
20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N20W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-24W.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME

000
Axnt20 Knhc 121032
Twdat

Tropical Weather Discussion
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
805 Am Edt Sun Aug 12 2007

...special Feature...
A Vigorous Tropical Wave Is Located Over The Far Eastern Atlantic
Ocean Along 22w S Of 19n. A 1006 Mb Low Pres Is Near 12n22w Or
About 300 Miles Southeast Of The Southernmost Cape Verde
Islands. Showers And Thunderstorms Have Changed Little In
Organization Overnight. However...conditions Appear Favorable
For Gradual Development Of This System...and A Tropical
Depression Could Form During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves
Westward At 15 To 20 Mph. Moderate To Isolated Strong Convection Is Within 60nm Of 12n24w.


$$
Gr

Discussion from NWS in San Juan, PR....

"LOOKING AHEAD...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL MANY DAYS
AWAY AND IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND ERRORS. THIS
FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS MEANT ONLY AS A GENERAL OUTLOOK OF
POTENTIAL FEATURES.

HOWEVER...THAT SAID...A VIGOROUS AND FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
TROPICAL WAVE/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEING
MONITORED AND PER TPC/NHC...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

INTERESTINGLY...THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN FORECAST WITH AMAZING
CONSISTENCY NOW FOR 6 DAYS AND BASICALLY 24 CYCLES OF THE GFS
MODEL...TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHEN INTO WHAT...
POTENTIALLY...COULD BECOME A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
IT MOVES WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY LATE
THIS COMING WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL HAS ALSO
BEEN JOINED BY THE UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF AND WRF MODELS IN
INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL IDEA...AGAIN WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY
AND SIMILARITY. SO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TREMENDOUS
UNCERTAINTY AND REALIZING THAT CURRENTLY THIS FEATURE IS STILL
ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE/LOW AND STILL MANY DAYS AWAY...IT WOULD BE
PRUDENT FOR ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS."

For those that missed Jeff Masters thoughts on 90L...

What the computer models say

Watching the computer model runs for 90L is not for the faint of heart. All the major models except the NOGAPS develop the system into a tropical storm or hurricane that tracks westward over the Atlantic, reaching the lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night, August 16. There are four possible scenarios to consider:

1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

2) In keeping with the steering pattern we've observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night's ECMWF model.

3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning's GFS model.

4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

Of the four scenarios, I believe #2 or #3 are most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will affect the Caribbean and/or U.S. East Coast. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane--and possibly a major hurricane--that will not recurve. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans

ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AT IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

I have a friend (Wallie) who hasn't cruised in 4 years and is leaving on a cruise next weekend out of Florida. I am really going to feel bad if something happens to miss this cruise!