Thread: Invest 99L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NOVA SCOTIA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

We also have two reconj flights scheduled today, 99l has been moved back and Recon will first go to a the NE Gulf where the front was, then go to 99L later!!


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.0N 65.5W
E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 03/1030Z
D. 30.0N 88.0W
E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Barbados is currently getting heavy showers, and wilnds from the E at 35 mph, with gusts to over 50 mph.

UGH and Today in Barbados is a national holiday - "Emancipation Day". If this is a GO and it doesn't turn into SA it could get into the Gulf!!

Didn't know about the holiday!

Let's not have 99L turn up into the Gulf, either. It may be about to be otherwise engaged, it appears. Let's not have 99L develop at all - that would suit me just fine!

Today





Top

You can see the rain we're getting! Lots of thunder!

We are better down here!! Right now Recon is in tha big blob just below PR, they are trying to find a west wind to upgrade, don't knoe if they can find one, maybe another day, it is moving pretty fast right now to develop!!

The faster it moves the less strength will develop.

Yes and tough to keep convection

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Thu Aug 2 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Reconnaissance Plane Investigating The Vigorous Tropical Wave In
The Eastern Caribbean Was Not Able To Find A Closed Circulation.
Satellite Images Indicate That This System Is A Little Better
Organized Than Yesterday And That The Area Of Thunderstorms Has
Also Increased. The Tropical Wave Is Moving Rapidly Westward And
Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Depression When The System
Reaches The Western Caribbean In A Day Ot Two. If Necessary...
Another Reconnaissance Plane Will Check The System On Friday. Even
If Development Does Not Occur...this Wave Will Likely Bring Squally
Weather To Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and Central America In
The Next Couple Of Days.