Thread: TD #3 is now TS CHANTAL

It is the large blob off south Florida!! We will see what is does!! We have a front moving slowly down the state and it is rare to get a front this late in July!!

That thing that is now 98L has been there for days. IF it develops, it will likely stay out to sea (we hope), probably moving N and E
But, you never know!

Sue -
Do you know if they have scheduled any recon yet or not?

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Sun Jul 29 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Area Low Pressure Area...located About 350 Miles Northeast Of
The Central Bahamas...remains Disorganized. Environmental
Conditions...however...could Become More Favorable For Tropical
Cyclone Development In A Day Or So As The System Moves North-
Northeastward At 10 To 15 Mph.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli

Here's what Dr. Jeff Masters has to say about 98L this morning:

A tropical disturbance (98L) a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas has become better organized this morning. Heavy thunderstorm activity is on the rise, and the beginnings of some upper-level outflow to the northeast is apparent . . . 98L is attempting to form a closed circulation at the surface, and had top winds of at least 25 mph.

. . . The GFS and GFDL models predict that the upper low will move north-northeast in tandem with the disturbance, keeping low enough shear over it that a tropical depression could form. The other reliable models do not develop 98L. At present, it appears that Bermuda is the only place that needs to concern itself with 98L. SSTs are warm enough to support tropical storm formation until 98L reaches a point 500 miles or so north of Bermuda. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon, and I do think it probable that 98L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Recon was cancelled this morning, and this was reissued!! It is believed to be issued for marine warnings!!

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 291200Z JUL 07//
WTNT 21 KNGU 291200 COR
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/291200Z JUL 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 291200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.0N 73.5W TO 34.5N 70.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 30.0N 73.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 301200Z.
//



A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert statement has been issued.Track map below.

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1229x882, size 38KB

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Mon Jul 30 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Is Centered About 200 Miles West Of
Bermuda. Upper-level Conditions Could Become More Favorable For
Tropical Or Subtropical Development Over The Next Day Or So As The
System Moves North-northeastward At 10 To 15 Mph. Locally Heavy
Rain And Gusty Winds Associated With This Disturbance Will Move
Across Bermuda Today. Please See Products Issued By Your Local
Weather Service Office For More Details.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

The Invest, which started out East of the Bahamas last week, has now moved north quite a bit, and become a Tropical Depression .

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...37.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI