Thread: Invest 94L - NW Caribbean

The area referred to in the following TWO (which was as of 5:30 this evening) has since been designated as Invest 94L.
A Hurricane Hunter Recon Flight is scheduled for tomorrow...

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

It is pegged by the NHS at around about 18N, 87W (a little NE of Belize) at the present time, and IF it were to develop into something (this is by NO means a certainty), a possible track that has been developed is for landfall on the N Gulf Coast somewhere around five days from now.

twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook...corrected
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Thu Jun 14 2007


For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

Cloudiness And Showers Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea Are Associated With A Broad And Elongated Area Of Low Ressure. Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable For Development...but May Become More Favorable During The Next 48 Hr As The System Drifts Toward The Northwest. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System Friday Afternoon...if Necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Am Edt Fri Jun 15 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

Cloudiness And Showers Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea Are
Associated With A Broad And Elongated Area Of Low Pressure.
Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable For Development...but
May Become More Favorable During The Next 48 Hours As The System
Drifts Toward The Northwest. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System This Afternoon...
If Necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The
Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The hurricane hunter flight that was scheduled to go into 94L this afternoon has been cancelled.

Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Fri Jun 15 2007

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Shower Activity Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea And Portions
Of Cuba Has Become Less Organized Since Yesterday And Surface
Pressures Are Rising In The Area. The Reconnaissance Aircraft
Previously Scheduled To Investigate The Area Has Been Canceled.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

EASTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS
DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WESTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 7N41W 5N54W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W
LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM OVER
CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO N OF 18N FROM 75W-85W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 80W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 74W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.