Thread: New invest in southwest Gulf!!

Cuba is to the top right and Florida is at 1 o'clock!! This will bring a lot of rain and thunderstorms to south Florida!! Have to watch to see if shear affects it and how fast or slow it moves, either north or east to the atlantic!!

This is one crazy prelude to the 2007 season!

Sure is and it hasn't started yet!! One more day!!

Here's what Dr Jeff Masters has to say this morning about Invest 92L. He also promises an update this afternoon, if warranted.

A large area of disturbed weather developed over the Western Caribbean last night. This disturbance is bringing winds of up to 55 mph over the ocean, according to the 7:07am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite. The NOAA Buoy off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula recorded winds this morning at 30mph, gusting to 35mph. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, but the disturbance does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday as it moves to the northeast over Western Cuba and South Florida. Wind shear is a not-too-unfriendly 10-20 knots, and the shear is expected to remain at these levels through Saturday. Thereafter, most of the models are indicating that the disturbance will get caught up by a strong trough of low pressure with high shear that should stop further development, and sweep the system northeastward out to sea. I doubt this system has enough time to get organized into a tropical depression before wind shear rips it up, but the disturbance should bring welcome heavy rains to South Florida over the weekend

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Possible recon for 92L on June 1 around 2 PM EDT or 18:00z.

Here we go . . . Hunters flying on the first day!

Wont41 Knhc 311549
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1150 Am Edt Thu May 31 2007

Showers And Thunderstorms In The Northwestern Caribbean Sea...
Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico And Adjacent Land Areas Are Associated
With A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Centered About 75 Miles Southeast
Of Cozumel Mexico. Although This System Has Some Potential For
Tropical Development Over The Next Day Or So...the Low Is Expected
To Move Slowly Northward Into The Southern Gulf Of Mexico Where
Environmental Conditions Would Likely Favor Further Development As
A Non-tropical Low. Regardless Of Development...this System Should
Bring Heavy Rains Across Western Cuba And Southern Florida Over The
Next Couple Of Days. Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local
Weather Service Office For More Details.

Additional Information On This System Can Be Found In High Seas
Forecasts Issued By The National Weather Service... Under Awips
Header Nfdhsfat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/blake/brown

From NHC

...FLorida...

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN BRINGING UPPER LOW INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...MODELS BRING STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
UNCERTAINTY EXIST REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF UPPER LOW PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Broad Area Of Low Pressure...analyzed 1006 Mb...is Located
About 75 Mi Se Of Cozumel Mexico. This Low Sits Along An
Elongated Sfc Trough Which Stretches From Nicaragua To The Srn
Gulf. This Large Trough Of Low Pres Is Producing A Big Area Of
Scattered Showers And Tstms Mostly Along And To The E Of The
Trough Axis. The Shower Activity Is Most Organized From 16n-23n
Between 79w-87w. Key West Doppler Radar Shows Some Of This
Stronger Activity Pulling N Into Radar Range. The Overall
Structure Of The System Has Improved Over The Past Day Or So And
For That Reason There Is Some Potential For Tropical Development
Over The Next Day Or Two. Thereafter...models Show The Low
Tracking To The N/ne Into A Strongly Sheared Environment Which
Would Favor Non-tropical Development. Regardless Of What
Forms...tropical Or Non-tropical...associated Heavy Rainfall May
Occur Across Wrn Cuba And S Florida Over The Next Couple Of Days.