Thread: TS Barbara Eastern Pacific!!

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT Wednesday, Depression 2-E has become Tropical Storm Barbara. Barbara was located near 14.2 degrees north and 97.3 degrees west, or approximately 250 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexcio. The tropical storm was nearly stationary, and with weak steering flow aloft, only a slow drift away from the Mexican mainland is expected the next day or two. With plenty of warm water to work with and very little upper-level shear, Barbara will likely continue to strengthen and become a hurricane late this week or over the weekend.

So, this means we have already see THREE Tropical storms (one Atlantic, and two Pacific) BEFORE the official start of the 2007 Hurricane season.

And, if the above forecast bears out, there just MAY be a (Pacific) Hurricane the first weekend of June.

What a start to the 2007 season!

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 30, 2007


the satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has become alittle stronger...with a ragged band in the southeastern quadrantof the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB andSAB are 35 and 30 kt...respectively...while the CIMSS ADT gives 41kt. On this basis...the depression is upgraded to a 35 kt tropicalstorm. Only twice before...in 1956 and 1984...have there been twoeastern North Pacific named storms in may.

The tropical cyclone remains nearly stationary. Water vapor imageryindicates that a large mid- to upper-level trough is developing overMexico and the western Gulf of Mexico...with a large mid/upper-level ridge over the Pacific west of the trough. The imagery alsoshows mid-level northerlies about to impinge on the circulation. In the short term...this should result in a southward drift awayfrom the Mexican coastline...and model guidance is in goodagreement on this for the first day or two of the forecast.
After that...however...there is a great deal of uncertainty as to whetherBarbara will be steered northeastward ahead of the Gulf trough orslide westward as the trough lifts out and ridging builds behindit. In the former Camp are the GFS and ECMWF...while a morewestward track is indicated by the GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS. Interestingly...the ECMWF ensembles are pretty much split betweenthese two options. The official forecast...admittedly lowconfidence...continues to favor the more westward scenario.

The intensity forecast is difficult as well. The mid-levelnortherlies approaching the cyclone will advect some dry air intothe circulation and increase the vertical shear. Consequently...Barbara could struggle in the Short Run.

Overall...however...conditions appear favorable for development...with very warm watersand good upper outflow. The SHIPS and GFDL models continue toforecast Barbara to reach hurricane strength in 48-72 hours. Theofficial forecast ends up in about the same place but with lessdevelopment initially.

Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 30/1500z 14.2n 97.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 13.9n 97.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 31/1200z 13.4n 97.1w 40 kt
36hr VT 01/0000z 13.0n 97.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 01/1200z 13.0n 96.8w 60 kt
72hr VT 02/1200z 13.5n 96.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 03/1200z 15.0n 97.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 04/1200z 16.5n 100.0w 70 kt

$$forecaster Franklin

In other words, keep an eye on this one... Especially beginning 2-3 days from now. What she does is anyone's guess at this point!

Could become a Hurricane.
Could stay offshore of Mexico,
Could be a Mexican landfall, or
Could cross over into the GoM and head northeast generally toward Florida.

Today's SST's

Sea Surface Temperature
Source: Weather Underground

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-May-2007 21:16:09 GMT

Barbara is expected to hit Acapulco

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 35 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 47 KT FROM THE CIMSS ADT. BECAUSE A TRMM PASS AT 17Z
SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT
YET WELL CONNECTED...I'M LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG AND BARBARA WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TAKES BARBARA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES 48 HOURS TO DO SO. IN THE SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH THE CENTER OF BARBARA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION...BUT I SEE NO OTHER INHIBITING FACTORS AT THE MOMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AS 170/4. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD...AND MOSTLY NOW LIFTS BARBARA NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION...BRINGING BARBARA ACROSS GUATEMALA IN THREE DAYS. THE ONLY REMAINING GUIDANCE FAVORING THE NORTHWEST TRACK...INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...IS THE NOT QUITE YET OPERATIONAL HWRF MODEL. AS MODELS OFTEN FLIP IN THESE KINDS OF SITUATIONS...I'M NOT PREPARED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS MY GUIDANCE...BUT I HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 13.3N 97.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 12.9N 97.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 12.4N 96.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 12.4N 96.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 96.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 96.4W 75 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 97.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Those on the SW coast of Mexico AND in Guatemala are being told to keep a close eye on this one...

I was wondering if this (early activity in the Pacific) was an unusual pattern. Last year seemed to have quite a few Pacific hurricanes during the summer.