Thread: TS Barbara Eastern Pacific!!

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Tropical Depression Barbara Discussion Number 10
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Ep022007
800 Pm Pdt Thu May 31 2007

The Center Is Very Difficult To Locate On Satellite Imagery...and
Surface Observations From Ships Nearby Suggest That The Center...if
It Exists...is Very Small. The Satellite Presentation Consists Of A
Large Cloud Band Resembling The Intertropical Convergence Zone. At
This Time...the Location Of The Center Is Based Solely On
Continuity And Is Being Placed Near An Area Of Strong But Small
Convection. The Cyclone Is Drifting Eastward Or 090 At 2 Knots...
Embedded Within An Area Of Mid-level Westerlies Associated With The
Base Of A Trough In The Gulf Of Mexico. As The Trough Moves
Eastward And A High Pressure Develops North Of The Cyclone...
Barbara...if It Survives...should Begin To Turn Gradually To The
North And Then To The West-northwest. This Is Basically The
Solution From Guidance.

Due To The Apparent Lack Of Organization...barbara Has Been
Downgraded To A 30-knot Depression. However...the Possibility Of
Some Re-intensification Is Indicated When The West-northwest Turn
Toward The Coast Of Mexico Begins.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...BARBARA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM PDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...13.3 N...94.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED....
...RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...

AT 2 PM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO.

AT 2 PM PDT THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BARRA DE TONALA TO SALINA CRUZ.

AT 200 PM PDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORMBARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER OR
ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND UATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...13.4 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

...Barbara heading toward the southeastern coast of Mexico...


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from sipacate Guatemalawestward to barra de tonala Mexico.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from barra de tonala to Salinacruz.

At 800 PM PDT the center of Tropical Storm Barbara was located near latitude 13.9 north...longitude 93.0 west or about 215miles southeast of Salina cruz Mexico.

Barbara is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected beforelandfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.

Barbara is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to10 inches over portions of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala...withpossible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. These rains couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 800 PM PDT position...13.9 N...93.0 W. Movementtoward...east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 1100 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 200am PDT.
$$Forecaster Roberts/Avila

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WTPZ32 KNHC 021137
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARBARA MEANDERING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA
WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...WEST OF THE COASTLINE AT THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA.

BARBARA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME VERY SOON. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING BARBARA
ONSHORE NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA