Thread: Article by Dr Steve Lyons

I came across this article in April, and have been saving it for when we started our 2007 Hurricane threads here on CLF. So, here it is!

DON'T GET SCARED, JUST GET PREPARED

(Dateline: April 20 - Author, Dr. Steve Lyons, Hurricane Expert)

Alright, hurricane season 2007 is just around the corner and some of the seasonal hurricane forecasts have hit the streets. You have seen them before and you will see them fine tuned and molded to this year's unfolding of storms and hurricanes over the next 4-5 months. I have just one comment for you: Don't get scared, just get prepared. The reason for my comment will become clearer but is based on the attitude -- why worry about something you cannot change; rather, change what you are able to change.

I will not go into a long verification process of previous seasonal forecasts, but let me give you a few pieces of information, based on those forecasts, that may surprise you:

1. The numbers of storms and hurricanes that hit the U.S. are very poorly related to the total numbers that form in the Atlantic!

2. The skill of forecasting the number of Atlantic hurricanes in June is very modest and over time typically accounts for less than 15% of the variability in what actually happens!

3. Exactly where a storm or hurricane may hit the U.S. is very often not certain even a few days in advance!

4. How strong the circulation is when it hits is even less certain than the track!

5. The land impacts from a storm or hurricane are highly variable and can range from massive power outages to flooding to huge water rise to giant waves to big wind damage or a combination of any of the above. Each tropical storm or hurricane cyclone landfall leaves a unique fingerprint dependant upon its characteristics, the characteristics of the location that is hit and the pre-conditions of that location!


So based on all this uncertainty, it is impossible for anyone to tell you with any certainty if your town/city/parish will be impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane this year. You are on your own!


More to follow . . .

So what is your recourse? That part is simple; you can prepare the best you possibly can for a "possible" strike. This means having a hurricane plan, having a hurricane disaster kit, having all the essentials to go it completely alone for at least a few days, and finally making your home or residence as wind and water resistant as possible.

Some builders now make homes that are basically wind resistant from even the strongest hurricanes. There are examples on the web that show destroyed homes in the eyewall of CAT 4 hurricane Charley, but in the mist of this disaster a well-built home with virtually NO DAMAGE. It is possible and it is available.

I know what you are thinking, "Steve, I'm not buying or building a new home." That means you need to make your existing residence as wind-proof as possible by adopting as many of the latest techniques as possible (wind-resistant windows and garages, roof tie-downs, and many other options).



It turns out that in Florida, some of you can qualify for matching funds for doing some of these things to your home! And in every coastal state there are wind insurance discounts based on how well-built your home is. Check it out for your state. Florida is the leader in this effort, but I hope all hurricane-prone states follow its lead.

As best I can tell, in the future, homes will have a hurricane wind rating 0-100 (100 being the best). The resale value on your home would be much higher if your home was rated an "80" rather than a "20"! So you are investing in your home by mitigating against wind and you will likely save quiet a bit on the wind insurance you are paying for today.

There is one potentially huge benefit from your home mitigation effort. Assuming you are not in a flood plain or on the beach where water can get you, your home could be your safe haven, and you can forget about those huge evacuation messes! But if you live in a flood-prone area or next to the ocean, you should be prepared to evacuate when asked to; just make sure you have flood insurance.

So when the next season hurricane forecast comes out, don't get scared just get prepared!

-30-