Thread: Dr Gray's 2007 Hurricane Season Prediction

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2007

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses) . . . . . . . .8 December 2006
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecast for 2007

Named Storms (NS) (9.6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) . . . . . .. . . .. .. . 70

Hurricanes (H) (5.9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 7

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . 35

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) . . . . 130

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) . . . 140

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

UGH I hope it is quiet like this year was!!

Me, too, Sue!
This time last year, Dr Gray predicted that 2006 would be VERY active, and that the US would get some significant hits. Thankfully, it turned out to be much quieter than the December predictions.

Here's hoping the same holds true for 2007!

Above average, yuk, we will see what El nino does!!

Yep.

For anyone who may have been wondering, here are the names to be used for the 2007 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

They are ALL pretty innocuous sounding names, right?

Well Humberto jumped right out at me when I looked at it, lets hope it is all good!!

Gray's 2007 Hurricane Season Prediction - includes APRIL UPDATE

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2007

Forecast Parameter
(1950-2000 Climatology) .. . .8 December 2006 . . .3 April 2007
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .Forecast for 2007 . . Update

Named Storms (NS) (9.6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . . . . ... 17

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) . . . . .. .. .. . 70 . . ... . ... .85

Hurricanes (H) (5.9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 7 . . . . . ... . .9

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) . . . . . . . . .. . .. . 35 . . . . . . ... .40

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . ... . .5

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) . . .. . . . . 8 . . . .. . . . . .11

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) . 130 . . . . . . .170

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)140 . . . . . . . .185

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 74% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean