Thread: Dr Gray's 2007 Hurricane Season Prediction

The May 31 update of the Gray / Katzenbach 2007 just came iout, and the left the predicted number of storms unchanged:

17 Named Storms

9 Hurricanes

5 Intense Hurricanes

They also left the landfall probablilties unchanged from their April forecast:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 74% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

The August 3 update of the Gray / Katzenbach 2007 came out today, and they lowered their predicted number of storms:

------------------------------------------------Prediction as of-------------Prediction as of
---------------------------MAY 31---------AUGUST 3
Named Storms-------------17-------------------15
Hurricanes-------------------9--------------------8
Intense Hurricanes----------5-------------------4

They also made some changes to the landfall probablilties:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:


Region ......... T S ..... Cat1-2 ... Cat3-5 .. A Hurricane .. A Named storm
Entire US.... ..... 92% .... 83% ....... 68% ....... 95% ...............99%
Gulf Coast..........75%......58%.........43%.........76 %................94%
East Coast + FL..67%.....60%..........44%.........78% ...............93%

I agree!! No hurricanes please!!