Update from Belize: The island of Ambergris caye which is just south of Mexican territoriy is the most threatened. After a direct hit by Keith in 2000, the 10,000 residents of that island and 5,000 or so on Caye Caulker just 10 miles to the south are taking no chances. Nat'l Emergency Management Org (NEMO) has called for evacuation of tourists from the islands, and many residents are voluntarily evacuating early. Most people are focusing on securing boats and water assets at this early stage.
There is fear that the circulation may come from the back of the island if the storm hits the Northern Yucatan (Keith's circulation hit the western part of the island after most boat owners had put their boats in ther lee for shelter, destroying hundreds of boats) so most people are moving the boats to the mainland.
Belize City is rather quiet, some people are boarding up, but most are on a wait-see mode. The movement of the track somewhat south on the latest advisory is making many nervous, and I expect that tomorrow will be very active with stocking of supplies, boarding up, and movement inland.
Belize City is low lying, but historically storm surges have been low because of the 180 mile barrier reef and hundreds of barrier islands dotting the shallow coastline. Belize City has not had a direct hit since Hurricane Hattie in 1961 which all but devastated the city.
Today the weather on Ambergris Caye was absolutely beautiful - blue skies,calm seas, light breeze and perfect temperatures.
Birds were pretty much gone until late in the day when we did see somewoodpeckers and a couple of frigates. Haven't seen a pelican in a coupleof days. Chacalakas were making ruckus yesterday but are silent today.
Voluntary evacuation of Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker is happening -maybe 1,500 or so have gone. Tourists have mostly gone. Most long-termresidents will stay and have experience in doing so. We're cooking chili,storing water and keeping current with the laundry. More importantly alsoinviting folks from less secure locations to shelter with us.
We are told that a large (6-8 foot)surge will occur around the back of theisland. 95% of the local boats are out of the water or jammed in mangroves in theshallow swamp areas that tend to protect us.
Saga Humane Sociey has the rescue animals cared for.
Hurricane Keith (Sept 2000) was a Cat 4 (140 MPH) that stalled and batteredus 36+ hours - so those who have homes that withstood Keith are ok with theidea of a cat 4 for 10 hours - to them it seems do-able and better thanevacuation. My sense is that most people are both well-prepared and jittery.
NEMO says that one can safely navigate to the mainland in a boat untilmid-afternoon tomorrow, and mainland rental car agencies are holding carsready for anybody who decides to get out and drive.
Friends in Placencia report that they are also boarding up and haulingboats. That is scary for us in the north, as we thought these folks werein the clear.
Government says that flooding from the rains will be a big problem, andthey seem more focused on that danger than on the issue for islands.
Offshore underwater parks (Blue Hole, etc.) closed early today.
SocialSecurity announced yesterday that their offices will be close Monda andTuesday on Ambergris Caye.
I'd meant to report far sooner than now, but we have spent so much timegetting ready and weather watching ...............Visions of safety for EVERYBODY in the region are foremost in our heartsand minds tonight and all through the coming days. We're in thistogether - today, tomorrow and next time. As Gilda Rdner said ............. "It's always something ........" and stilshe smiled.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...270/18.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN. THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION .. ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS … IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LANDFALL FOR THE CENTRE OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN IS NOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W WITH SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 140 KT. NEAR 30 to 50 Miles north of Chetumal
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS THEREFORE RECOMMENDED IMMEDIATE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW LYING AREAS AND THE OUTER ISLANDS AND CAYES TO BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
NEMO IS URGING ALL RESIDENTS OF AMBERGRIS CAYE, SAN PEDRO AND CAYE CAULKER TO COMPLETE THEIR EVACUATION PLANS NOW.
Authorities evacuated Belize City's three hospitals and were moving high-risk patients to the inland capital, Belmopan, founded after 1961's Hurricane Hattie devastated Belize City. Belize City Mayor Zenaida Moya urged people to leave, saying shelters aren't strong enough to withstand a storm of Dean's size.
Belize about 50 miles south of estimated landfall:
OK. Update on today. We took walks with the dogs and met with neighbours. It is very humid. The atmosphere is strange. Everyone is wired, exhausted and merry. We know it is hitting at night. When the first band came, you could feel the pressure in your head change. Very strange sensation. The muppets and Tacos came round for a dog walk. At that time the beach just started to disappear. The bugs were running like crazy away from the sea. Lots of bugs. It was quite astounding. Not just one species. I saw at least three species, none of which I can name. A neighbour has pulled his boat out and all of us reckon the boat will be gone by morning. There is nothing near by we can tie it too. What a shame. Everyone seems to be taking advantage of the lull. Lots of people walking dogs and observing the sea rolling in. The end of Victoria House dock is under water. Waves are rolling in under and over the piers. Beach is eroding. I took a cycle at sundown with the dog in the hope of emptying him one last time for the night. The crocs at the lagoon near the water plant were up at the edge. Two of them. There were people enjoying the lull or trying to make it somewhere. Some were surfing. When I say people, I mean the small number who are here still. Maya has just come in and says the water has risen to the level of the Squirrels Nest Bar at Mata Rocks, right up to under the ground floor suite. The waves are huge. Royal Palms dock has started losing boards now. No wind. Just surge and waves. The Discovery Hut at the Royal Palms dock has water in it. We reckon that will be gone by morning. Sea wall at Royal Palms is covered. The water is at the gate. We'll update you when we can. Signing off from the seafront in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, Belize, Central America.
am not in Belize but have just spoken to several people on the island.
wind is starting to calm down, think they will be able to get out in an hour or so. in town and south island not as bad as Keith, water didnt come up as high and wind gusts werent as strong. several or most of the piers on the front have gone. some damaged houses but other wooden houses still ok. the trees still have leaves although quite a few down.
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