tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt fri jun 26 2009

tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.

Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 utc.

...special features...

An active tropical wave in the wrn caribbean is from 10n-21n
along 84w moving w near 15 kt. Accompanying the tropical wave is
a 1009 mb surface low analyzed along the wave axis near 17.5n. A
large cluster of scattered to numerous strong convection is
found e of the surface low from 14n-19n between 81w-85w and is
in between two upper level features. Strong moist sly middle to
upper level flow between an upper low over the yucatan peninsula
and ern bay of campeche and an upper level high centered over
jamaica is continuing to enhance the convection associated with
the tropical wave and surface low. Global models indicate this
area of disorganized weather will move towards the srn gulf of
mexico late saturday into sunday...with the possibility of
becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In the
meantime...locally heavy rainfall will continue to fall in the
vicinity of this system over honduras and in the nw caribbean...
Spreading nwd over portions of the yucatan peninsula and much of
wrn and central cuba.

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