000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162219 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
...CORRECTION TO LAST PARAGRAPH...
BASED ON
1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EMBEDDED NEAR THE NE END OF A
MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAS SUGGESTED MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN AN ELONGATED MEAN CIRCULATION...WITH
THIS MEAN CENTER MOVING WNW NEAR 10 MPH. THE LOW LEVEL CENTERS HAVE
APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS OCCURRING IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS OUT TO 120 NM FROM THE
CENTER...SUGGESTING N TO NE WIND SHEAR. AT 18Z...A 1008 MB LOW
CENTER WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 14.5N105W...OR 285 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM TODAY REVEAL A BROAD ZONE OF SW TO
S WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THIS SYSTEM...
WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO SPIRAL IN TOWARDS THE CENTER. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.