Sr. Jeff Masters does an 'outlook' twice a month in his tropical weather blog. In it, he analyzes current conditions that might have an impact on possibke development of tropical systems, These conditions include Sea Surface Temperatures, wind shear, stearing currents, presence or absence of El Nino / La Nina conditions, trade winds, latest long range model runs, saharan dust, historic precedent, and probably a lot more.

Then, based on all this analysis, he comes up with a likelihood that a tropical system or systems will develop in the coming two weeks.

In this thread, I'll let everyone know what he is saying in his outlooks.

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