000
wtnt41 knhc 290833
tcdat1
tropical depression one discussion number 4
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al012009
500 am ast fri may 29 2009

after an increase in deep convection that began around 0400 utc...satellite imagery indicates that the convection has begun to decrease and move eastward away from the low level circulation center. . . .

The center of the depression is very close to the northern wall of the gulf stream...and the forecast track takes the cyclone over colder water today. Therefore...it appears that the opportunity for this system to reach tropical storm strength has passed. Most of the global model guidance shows the cyclone becoming extratropical within 24 hours as it becomes entangled with a frontal boundary to the north. These models also show the cyclone dissipating by 36 hours...however this could occur sooner if the circulation becomes poorly defined as it interacts with the front.

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