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twdat
tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt mon may 18 2009
tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 utc.
..discussion...
Gulf of mexico...
A deep layer trough over the e conus and e gulf is associated
with a surface cold over the e gulf that extends from the south
florida peninsula near 26n82w to 26n83w. Farther to the sw...a
newly-developed 1010 mb surface low is located near 25n85w...
With a surface trough extending from 26n84w to the surface low
to 22n85w. This surface low is located beneath the southwestern
portion of the deep layer trough that extends into the e gulf.
Low level convergence near the low...trough...and cold front is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the gulf
from 23n-29n e of 87w...including the central and south florida
peninsula...the straits of florida...the florida keys...and w
cuba. This shower and thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by
upper level diffluence between the aforementioned deep trough
and an upper level ridge over the sw north atlc. During the next
day...the surface low is forecast to move eastward and be
located over the florida keys near 25n81w as a 1009 mb surface
low at 19/1800 utc. However...the future development and track
of the low remain uncertain...though computer model guidance
suggests that winds will increase around the low...which will
affect portions of the gulf of mexico. Across the west gulf...
Deep layer dry air...as well as subsidence with confluent upper
level northwesterly flow...are resulting in generally fair
weather conditions. Also...n to ne surface winds are occurring
across the w gulf...with wind speeds up to 25 kt across portions
of the nw gulf.
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