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tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
805 pm edt sun may 17 2009
tropical weather discussion for north america...central
america...gulf of mexico...caribbean sea...northern sections
of south america...and atlantic ocean to the african coast
from the equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1800 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2245 utc.
...discussion...
Gulf of mexico...
A deep layer trough over the south central conus is associated
with a surface stationary front over the w gulf that extends
from south central louisiana near 29n91w to 26n95w to the coast
of mexico near 22n98w. Also...a surface trough is located to the
e of the front and extends from s mississippi near 30n89w to n
of the yucatan peninsula near 22n89w. Low level convergence near
the surface front and surface trough is supporting scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the gulf n of 26n
between 86w-95w...with scattered showers s of 23n w of 91w.
Additionally...relatively unstable atmospheric conditions
associated with moist southeasterly flow over the e gulf are
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 23n to 29n e
of 84w including the w florida peninsula...the florida
keys...the straits of florida...and w cuba. All of the shower
and thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by upper level
diffluence between the aforementioned deep trough and an upper
level ridge over the sw gulf. The front is expected to move
southeastward as a cold front through tuesday. Also... During
the next day...many of the global models are showing low
pressure developing over the n central caribbean...either
extratropical or subtropical...and moving generally n. The
development and track of the low remain uncertain...though
computer models suggest that winds will increase around the low.
Caribbean sea...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting portions of the
north central caribbean n of 16n between 71w-79w...including
jamaica...e cuba...and w hispaniola. This activity is being
supported by low level convergence near a surface trough that
extends from e cuba near 20n76w to 16n76w. The activity is also
being supported by upper level diffluence between an upper ridge
over the sw north atlc and an upper trough over the s caribbean.
During the next day...a surface low is forecast to develop along
the surface trough and move n of the caribbean monday night.
$$
cohen
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