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From Storm Caribe...............
Sat, 8 Nov 2008 11:36:18 -0400 - Big damage!
Good morning!
Back on Wednesday, I noted that this system would be a Cat 3 and possibly a Cat 4 due to the very favorable elements in the surrounding environments. Now, category 4 hurricane Paloma has given Grand Cayman a close call but has caused major damage to Cayman Brac and and Little Cayman. See reports from Captain Chris Taggert on the Cayman Island reports to the right on this page. Grand Cayman itself dodged a major bullet and this little jog to the ENE put the smaller islands directly in the path of the monster. The computer models grossly underestimated the potential intensity of this system yesterday and that may have led to a bit of complacency as these islands are well built to withstand hurricanes, especially after hurricane Ivan made his unwanted appearance in 2004. Fortunately, no fatalities have been reported and storm surge is not a major factor in the damage arena due to the deep waters surrounding the Caymans. Unfortunately, that will not be the case when it hits southern Cuba with the expected storm surge to be between 18-23 feet!!
Southern Jamaica has been pounded by rough seas and high winds from Paloma's passing as well and I'm sure there will be damage on the western and southern coasts although nothing like Caymans and soon, Cuba will receive.
Currently, pressure is 943 mb tying it for the second strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in November with the record held by "wrong-way" Lenny in 1999. Weakening is starting to take place as an eyewall replacement cycle is noted on satellite imagery and the weakening trend is slowly expected to continue due to expected increasing wind shear but the SST's are still very warm on it's way to Cuba so expect at least a Cat 3 at landfall. Thereafter, the mountainous terrain of Cuba, along with the shear, should take it's toll on Paloma allowing it to survive as a TS after reemerging from the coast. Then, so they say, it's supposed to fall apart as it wanders the Bahama's. Did anyone see that westerly turn at the end of the 5 day cone? Remember, 3-5 day forecasts are subject to large error possibilities. We'll see what qualities hurricane Paloma retains after it's run in the mountains.
Be safe!!
Dave
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