Thread: Tropical Depression Boris
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Old 06-30-2008, 10:40 AM canarymoon is offline     #12 (permalink)
canarymoon
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Today:
From the 5 AM discussion
boris' overall satellite presentation is not particularly impressive at this time. However...the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged and so is the initial intensity estimate of 60 kt. While the overall environment does not appear ideal for intensification...Boris still has a chance to become a hurricane
within the next 24 hours. Interestingly...the statistical-dynamical intensity models...SHIPS and lgem...show little or no strengthening while the purely dynamical models...HWRF and GFDL...both show Boris intensifying to near 80 kt. The official forecast splits the difference and shows a little strengthening
later today. Beyond 24 hours...all of the available guidance shows gradual weakening as Boris begins to encounter cooler waters and a more stable air mass.
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